GP Short Notes

GP Short Notes # 543, 27 June 2021

Europe: Russia's responses
Joeana Cera Matthews

What happened?
On 23 June, the Russian ambassador to the EU Vladimir Chizhov said: (EU should) get its act together and define what it really wants from its relations with Russia." 
On 25 June, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova commented: "On our part, we reiterate our readiness for the continuation of an equal dialogue with the European Union... contrary to the hopes some the EU capitals are cherishing, cannot be based on preliminary conditions. The more so, on threats of unilateral and illegal sanctions against our country, which will inevitably be followed by a proportionate response, and Brussels is well aware of that." Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said: "In general, President Putin was and remains interested in improving working relations between Moscow and Brussels... The European position is fragmented, not always consistent, and sometimes unclear." 
 
What is the background?
First, the Russian response to the EU sanctions. Following the 2014 Ukraine invasion and Crimean annexation, the EU sanctioned Russia on its energy, financial, and arms sectors and imposed individual sanctions on those Russians accused of human rights abuses. The latest EU summit saw the possibility of further sanctions with EU diplomats saying that it could target Russian money laundering or powerful oligarchs suspected of corruption abroad. Most EU countries are concerned that the Kremlin does not take the bloc seriously, given its dramatic expulsion of EU diplomats in February. On the other hand, Moscow has repeatedly warned the EU not to meddle in its internal affairs. Russia believes that the bilateral relations have been severely undermined by the unilateral sanctions that affect the economic interests of both sides for the sake of promoting 'dubious' geopolitical schemes. The confrontational stereotypes that characterized the Cold War period continuing to linger in the minds of the EU members doesn't help Russia's case.  

Second, Putin's Europe strategy. Russia has clear goals and tactics regarding Europe – to undermine democracy, undermine the trans-Atlantic unity, and restore Russian primacy. The Kremlin aims to achieve this by establishing an energy reliance (the Nord Stream 1 and 2), engaging in strategic corruption, and vicious disinformation campaigns. During the EU summit, Germany with France's backing proposed a summit with Putin which was disagreed upon as it caused major division within the bloc. 

Third, the China factor in the Russian response. An Estonian member of the European Parliament stated: "We should not overlook the deepening relations of two authoritarian states – Russia and China – as this also influences Europe." This just goes on to prove how worried Europe is about the Chinese factor in Euro-Russian relations. Russia has always had an identity crisis of belonging, and considering the increasing camaraderie between Xi Jinping and Putin, the EU cannot but think the worst. Russia and China seem to have reached an accommodative situation wherein Moscow provides security while Beijing provides development, enabling both to stay out of each other's way. But it is not just the EU that is concerned over this budding relationship. The Biden-Putin summit also saw this as an ulterior motive – to divide and conquer. 
 
What does it mean?
Under no circumstances will Russia give up on its core interests and pushing them to the edge will further strain bilateral relations. The growing Sino-Russian bond will also provide a boost to Putin's confidence in defying the world order and attaining its strategic goals. 

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